Analyzing the Oscar Acting Races: Who’s Back, Who’s New, Who’s Rising
When handicapping the Oscars, pundits scrutinize all kinds of statistics — such as previous nominations, how the contenders are perceived and the type of role they play — for clues. So we couldn’t resist looking at the actors vying for awards glory in this year’s race to see how the veterans stack up against the data and the fresh faces looking to break in.
Best ActorReturning Champs
Leonardo DiCaprio“One Battle After Another”STATS Oscar winner for 2015’s “The Revenant,” seven-time nomineeADVANTAGES He’s the star of the presumed front-running best picture candidate and he gets to run the gamut of emotions from love to desperation and even throws in some slapstick comedy as a former revolutionary called back in action when his daughter is put in danger.
George Clooney “Jay Kelly”STATS Two-time Oscar winner for supporting actor in 2006’s “Syriana” and for producing 2017’s “Argo,” eight-time nomineeADVANTAGES Literally no one else would have been as perfect playing the aging movie star in Noah Baumbach’s poignant elegy. He makes the charm look easy, but look closer at what isn’t being said — this is a beautifully nuanced performance. Also, he’s George Clooney and deadly on the circuit.
KEEP AN EYE ON Brendan Fraser, “Rental Family,” who won in this category for 2022’s “The Whale”Back in the Ring
Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme”STATS Two-time Oscar nominee for best actorADVANTAGES Even at his young age, he’s perceived as overdue (likely just missed out on winning this prize earlier this year for “A Complete Unknown.”) He is undeniable as a ping-pong prodigy in a very unique and heralded film.
Ethan Hawke “Blue Moon”STATS A four-time nominee in writing and supporting actor, this would be his first lead actor nom.ADVANTAGES Hawke delivers a career-best performance as Lorenz Hart, the less-heralded half of a songwriting team with Richard Rodgers. And the industry loves a movie about artists.
KEEP AN EYE ON Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue,” previously nominated for 2012’s “Les Misérables.”
New to the Race
Joel Edgerton “Train Dreams”As this poem of a movie gains momentum, it’s hard to ignore the man at the center.
Oscar Isaac “Frankenstein”Many pundits have underestimated this film only to be proven wrong — and Isaac delivers probably the most complex and in-depth portrait of the mad scientist to date.
Dwayne Johnson“The Smashing Machine”His physical transformation into UFC fighter Mark Kerr is remarkable, but so is the tender heart he brings to the role.
Best ActressReturning Champ
Emma Stone “Bugonia”STATS Two-time Oscar winner for 2024’s “Poor Things” and 2017’s “La La Land,” five-time nomineeADVANTAGES Once again, Stone gives it her all in a fearless performance as a pharmaceutical CEO who may or may not be an alien.
KEEP AN EYE ON Two-time best actress winner Jodie Foster, for “A Private Life”
Back in the Ring
Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”STATS Previously nominated in the supporting actress category for 2021’s “The Lost Daughter”ADVANTAGES Currently seen as the front-runner for her raw and earthy portrait of William Shakespeare’s wife and the mother of the doomed title character.
Cynthia Erivo “Wicked: For Good”STATS Three-time Oscar nominee for 2025’s “Wicked” and 2020’s “Harriet” (best actress and song)ADVANTAGES She was nominated for the first and she’s just as good — if not better — this time around as the would-be Wicked Witch of the West. And the film is a runaway hit.
Kate Hudson “Song Sung Blue”STATS Previously nominated in supporting actress category for 2020’s “Almost Famous”ADVANTAGES She sings, she charms and she breaks our hearts as a woman who starts up a Neil Diamond tribute band.
Amanda Seyfried“The Testament of Ann Lee”STATS Previously nominated in the supporting actress category for 2020’s “Mank”ADVANTAGES Seyfried is stunning in a risky film —a musical about the leader of the Shaker Movement — as a woman regarded as the female Christ by followers.
New to the Race
Rose Byrne “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”Showing the dark side of motherhood, Byrne is unflinching — and she picked up the Silver Bear for best leading performance at this year’s Berlin Film Festival.
Chase Infiniti “One Battle After Another”Making her feature film debut, Infiniti doesn’t miss a step and more than holds her own with Oscar-winners Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn.
Renate Reinsve “Sentimental Value”Though she should have been nominated for “The Worst Person in the World,” this reunion with Joachim Trier should assure her a nod. She plays an actress who can’t connect with her director father.KEEP AN EYE ON Lucy Liu, “Rosemead”; Sydney Sweeney, “Christy,” and Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
Supporting ActorReturning Champs
Benicio del Toro“One Battle After Another”STATS Previously won in this category for 2000’s “Traffic”ADVANTAGES Though his co-star Sean Penn is seen as a lock for a showier role, appreciation for del Toro’s scene-stealing Sensei is high and he could dance his way into the race.
Sean Penn “One Battle After Another”STATS Two-time best actor winner for “Mystic River” and “Milk,” five-time nomineeADVANTAGES Penn reminds us just how good — and darkly funny — he is with this tour-de-force as a military man whose words and actions don’t always add up.
Back in the Ring
Paul Mescal “Hamnet”STATS Previously nominated for lead actor for 2022’s “Aftersun”ADVANTAGES Mescal doesn’t miss a step as a young William Shakespeare in his formative years.
Jeremy Strong“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 2024’s “The Apprentice”ADVANTAGES He’s reliably great as Bruce Springsteen’s longtime manager Jon Landau. People underestimated his chances after “The Apprentice” didn’t light up the box office and were proven wrong.
New to the Race
Jacob Elordi “Frankenstein”Elordi has earned raves for his heartbreaking portrayal of the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of the classic.
Delroy Lindo “Sinners”Lindo is widely respected and always solid. Love for “Sinners” could help carry him into his first nomination.
Adam Sandler “Jay Kelly”This is not a drill. After years of coming close to a nom, Sandler should finally find himself in the race playing a put-upon manager to a movie star.
Stellan Skarsgård “Sentimental Value”Skarsgård seems assured his first nom-ination for playing an absent father in the family drama.KEEP AN EYE ON Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly,” and Mark Hamill, “Life of Chuck”
Supporting ActressReturning Champ
Gwyneth Paltrow “Marty Supreme”STATS Best actress winner for 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love”ADVANTAGES As a fading movie star married to a crass industrialist Paltrow reminds us how good she is with great material — and how much she’s been missed from the big screen.KEEP AN EYE ON Laura Dern, “Jay Kelly,” who won in this category for 2019’s “Marriage Story”
Back in the Ring
Ariana Grande “Wicked: For Good”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 2024’s “Wicked”ADVANTAGES She was beloved in part one and most critics and audiences agree: part two gives her even more depth and complexity as Glinda the Good.
Amy Madigan“Weapons”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime”ADVANTAGES Audiences love her turn as an actual witch in Zach Cregger’s smash hit.
KEEP AN EYE ON Eight-time Oscar nominee Glenn Close for “Wake Up Dead Man”
New to the Race
Elle Fanning “Sentimental Value”Fanning is perfectly cast as an American actress infringing on a European family, bringing wisdom and tenderness toher role.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas“Sentimental Value”Lilleaas brings a tender balance to the film’s family dynamics playing a loving sister and daughter.
Teyana Taylor“One Battle After Another”Taylor exudes power, sex appeal and absolute command of the screen as a revolutionary who doesn’t let motherhood slow down her fight.KEEP AN EYE ON Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”; Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; and Mari Yamamoto, “Rental Family”
Best ActorReturning Champs
Leonardo DiCaprio“One Battle After Another”STATS Oscar winner for 2015’s “The Revenant,” seven-time nomineeADVANTAGES He’s the star of the presumed front-running best picture candidate and he gets to run the gamut of emotions from love to desperation and even throws in some slapstick comedy as a former revolutionary called back in action when his daughter is put in danger.
George Clooney “Jay Kelly”STATS Two-time Oscar winner for supporting actor in 2006’s “Syriana” and for producing 2017’s “Argo,” eight-time nomineeADVANTAGES Literally no one else would have been as perfect playing the aging movie star in Noah Baumbach’s poignant elegy. He makes the charm look easy, but look closer at what isn’t being said — this is a beautifully nuanced performance. Also, he’s George Clooney and deadly on the circuit.
KEEP AN EYE ON Brendan Fraser, “Rental Family,” who won in this category for 2022’s “The Whale”Back in the Ring
Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme”STATS Two-time Oscar nominee for best actorADVANTAGES Even at his young age, he’s perceived as overdue (likely just missed out on winning this prize earlier this year for “A Complete Unknown.”) He is undeniable as a ping-pong prodigy in a very unique and heralded film.
Ethan Hawke “Blue Moon”STATS A four-time nominee in writing and supporting actor, this would be his first lead actor nom.ADVANTAGES Hawke delivers a career-best performance as Lorenz Hart, the less-heralded half of a songwriting team with Richard Rodgers. And the industry loves a movie about artists.
KEEP AN EYE ON Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue,” previously nominated for 2012’s “Les Misérables.”
New to the Race
Joel Edgerton “Train Dreams”As this poem of a movie gains momentum, it’s hard to ignore the man at the center.
Oscar Isaac “Frankenstein”Many pundits have underestimated this film only to be proven wrong — and Isaac delivers probably the most complex and in-depth portrait of the mad scientist to date.
Dwayne Johnson“The Smashing Machine”His physical transformation into UFC fighter Mark Kerr is remarkable, but so is the tender heart he brings to the role.
Best ActressReturning Champ
Emma Stone “Bugonia”STATS Two-time Oscar winner for 2024’s “Poor Things” and 2017’s “La La Land,” five-time nomineeADVANTAGES Once again, Stone gives it her all in a fearless performance as a pharmaceutical CEO who may or may not be an alien.
KEEP AN EYE ON Two-time best actress winner Jodie Foster, for “A Private Life”
Back in the Ring
Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”STATS Previously nominated in the supporting actress category for 2021’s “The Lost Daughter”ADVANTAGES Currently seen as the front-runner for her raw and earthy portrait of William Shakespeare’s wife and the mother of the doomed title character.
Cynthia Erivo “Wicked: For Good”STATS Three-time Oscar nominee for 2025’s “Wicked” and 2020’s “Harriet” (best actress and song)ADVANTAGES She was nominated for the first and she’s just as good — if not better — this time around as the would-be Wicked Witch of the West. And the film is a runaway hit.
Kate Hudson “Song Sung Blue”STATS Previously nominated in supporting actress category for 2020’s “Almost Famous”ADVANTAGES She sings, she charms and she breaks our hearts as a woman who starts up a Neil Diamond tribute band.
Amanda Seyfried“The Testament of Ann Lee”STATS Previously nominated in the supporting actress category for 2020’s “Mank”ADVANTAGES Seyfried is stunning in a risky film —a musical about the leader of the Shaker Movement — as a woman regarded as the female Christ by followers.
New to the Race
Rose Byrne “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”Showing the dark side of motherhood, Byrne is unflinching — and she picked up the Silver Bear for best leading performance at this year’s Berlin Film Festival.
Chase Infiniti “One Battle After Another”Making her feature film debut, Infiniti doesn’t miss a step and more than holds her own with Oscar-winners Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn.
Renate Reinsve “Sentimental Value”Though she should have been nominated for “The Worst Person in the World,” this reunion with Joachim Trier should assure her a nod. She plays an actress who can’t connect with her director father.KEEP AN EYE ON Lucy Liu, “Rosemead”; Sydney Sweeney, “Christy,” and Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
Supporting ActorReturning Champs
Benicio del Toro“One Battle After Another”STATS Previously won in this category for 2000’s “Traffic”ADVANTAGES Though his co-star Sean Penn is seen as a lock for a showier role, appreciation for del Toro’s scene-stealing Sensei is high and he could dance his way into the race.
Sean Penn “One Battle After Another”STATS Two-time best actor winner for “Mystic River” and “Milk,” five-time nomineeADVANTAGES Penn reminds us just how good — and darkly funny — he is with this tour-de-force as a military man whose words and actions don’t always add up.
Back in the Ring
Paul Mescal “Hamnet”STATS Previously nominated for lead actor for 2022’s “Aftersun”ADVANTAGES Mescal doesn’t miss a step as a young William Shakespeare in his formative years.
Jeremy Strong“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 2024’s “The Apprentice”ADVANTAGES He’s reliably great as Bruce Springsteen’s longtime manager Jon Landau. People underestimated his chances after “The Apprentice” didn’t light up the box office and were proven wrong.
New to the Race
Jacob Elordi “Frankenstein”Elordi has earned raves for his heartbreaking portrayal of the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of the classic.
Delroy Lindo “Sinners”Lindo is widely respected and always solid. Love for “Sinners” could help carry him into his first nomination.
Adam Sandler “Jay Kelly”This is not a drill. After years of coming close to a nom, Sandler should finally find himself in the race playing a put-upon manager to a movie star.
Stellan Skarsgård “Sentimental Value”Skarsgård seems assured his first nom-ination for playing an absent father in the family drama.KEEP AN EYE ON Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly,” and Mark Hamill, “Life of Chuck”
Supporting ActressReturning Champ
Gwyneth Paltrow “Marty Supreme”STATS Best actress winner for 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love”ADVANTAGES As a fading movie star married to a crass industrialist Paltrow reminds us how good she is with great material — and how much she’s been missed from the big screen.KEEP AN EYE ON Laura Dern, “Jay Kelly,” who won in this category for 2019’s “Marriage Story”
Back in the Ring
Ariana Grande “Wicked: For Good”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 2024’s “Wicked”ADVANTAGES She was beloved in part one and most critics and audiences agree: part two gives her even more depth and complexity as Glinda the Good.
Amy Madigan“Weapons”STATS Previously nominated in this category for 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime”ADVANTAGES Audiences love her turn as an actual witch in Zach Cregger’s smash hit.
KEEP AN EYE ON Eight-time Oscar nominee Glenn Close for “Wake Up Dead Man”
New to the Race
Elle Fanning “Sentimental Value”Fanning is perfectly cast as an American actress infringing on a European family, bringing wisdom and tenderness toher role.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas“Sentimental Value”Lilleaas brings a tender balance to the film’s family dynamics playing a loving sister and daughter.
Teyana Taylor“One Battle After Another”Taylor exudes power, sex appeal and absolute command of the screen as a revolutionary who doesn’t let motherhood slow down her fight.KEEP AN EYE ON Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”; Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; and Mari Yamamoto, “Rental Family”