Can Live Music Break More Records in 2025? Q1 Results Are Inconclusive
Last year represented an all-time high for the live music industry since its post-pandemic resurgence. Whether this year can measure up is subject to interpretation.
Q1 for the sector is typically a sleepy quarter for live music, though it still offers a glimpse of where the rest of the year is going. But with the release of reports by Live Nation Entertainment and Pollstar, 2025’s trajectory is perhaps more hazy than it was before the quarter wrapped.
LNE’s Q1 report (which tracks January to mid-April) paints a rosy picture for the rest of ‘25 despite the actual Q1 results being underwhelming. The company attributed its drops in revenue ($3.4 billion, -11% YoY) and adjusted operating income ($341.1 million, -6% YoY) to a dip in non-concert activities such as sports as well as ongoing foreign currency fluctuations, although concert revenue was also down by 14% compared with 2024’s Q1, at $2.48 billion.
But instead of focusing on those losses, the company highlighted what’s ahead for 2025. Live Nation’s deferred revenue — or money from events happening later in the year — is around $5.4 billion, up 24% by this point last year, while Ticketmaster’s deferred revenue was also up a record 13%, at $270 million.
A representative for LNE confirmed that as of last week, 100 million tickets have been sold for Live Nation concerts this year — already beyond the 98 million sold in 2019 and on par to match or even exceed the 160 million of 2024.
Interestingly, that lift was driven by an “over 80%” increase in stadium ticket sales, likely a surprise to anyone tracking industrywide trends over the past couple of years — including LNE noting the ongoing “reduced stadium activity” in previous quarterly reports. (A rep for LNE clarified that the change in stadium activity is in part the natural “ebb and flow” of the industry.)
These results set the stage for another “historic year for live music” in LNE’s opinion. Pollstar, meanwhile, predicted a “mixed year ahead” based on its own Q1 results (mid-November to mid-February).
Looking at the top 100 tours worldwide, Pollstar found that average ticket price went down for the first time in years — by 20%, no less. By extension, total tickets sold and average tickets sold per show also increased by double digits (17.3% and 18.8%, respectively). Still, despite the ticket sale increase, Q1 gross (-6.4%) and average gross per show (-5%) both declined for the first time in the post-pandemic era.
But this development isn’t necessarily a negative one, as Pollstar noted in its analysis that the most dramatic YoY deficits are at the front of the top 100 tours list. The top five highest-grossing tours for Q1, for instance, saw a 39% decrease in gross and 10.3% decrease in ticket sales versus last year’s Q1.
Not only is the YoY loss in gross reduced by well over half by the top 50 acts, but the YoY rate for tickets sold increases to nearly 9%. In other words, gross and average price are down despite ticket sales being up, because the money is more evenly distributed among the top 100 tours compared with previous quarters.
In reality, Pollstar and LNE found similar Q1 trends — not as much money came in this quarter, while attendance is up — but they ultimately drew different conclusions. It’s LNE’s optimism for beyond Q1, especially on the stadium front, that seems to be the point of divergence.
There may be a few factors at play behind the stadium show push. For one, there’s a particularly stacked lineup of stadium tours by artists popular with younger audiences. There are the usual rock and nostalgia acts leading stadium tours (think Coldplay, Billy Joel, Oasis), of course, but a shift to younger pop and pop-adjacent acts predominantly mounting top-scale tours is well underway.
Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar/SZA’s respective tours are currently drawing umpteen thousands, and the former already broke a box office record with her kickoff at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium despite reports of unsold tickets.
Artists already playing or set to play stadium gigs this year include first-timers Olivia Rodrigo and Lana Del Rey, pop-country superstars Post Malone and Morgan Wallen and Latin heavyweights Bad Bunny and Shakira.
By extension, these big tours coming off an exceptional year for new music releases is likely no coincidence, either. Chart-topping hits including Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” and Lamar’s “Not Like Us” were especially culturally pervasive over the past year, and Luminate data shows how the top 200 songs have increasingly captured more of a given year’s total streams since 2022. Perhaps one side effect of so much new, hugely popular music is greater live demand for certain artists.
Another potential change is that stadium tickets, for now, are getting cheaper. LNE noted in its Q1 report that the average get-in price for all venue types is currently $40, while stadiums specifically are 8% below 2024 levels at $60. If this is true, it’s a welcome adjustment after years of skyrocketing ticket prices and fees.
It’s also a necessary shift as the music industry tests the monetary potential and limits of superfans via premium experiences and dedicated pricing tiers for the most devoted. Indeed, these lower get-in prices seem to be part of LNE’s “Robin Hood strategy,” as described by LNE CEO Michael Rapino in the Q1 earnings call, to make the base prices cheaper and adjust the value of the premium tiers accordingly.
On the fandom front, it’s also possible that audiences are adjusting to the “new normal” of high prices. As core live music fans shift from Millennials to Gen Z, Zoomers have displayed a willingness to spend big, travel far and even take on debt to attend a concert or festival. Luminate also found that as of Q1 2025, Gen Z is currently outpacing Millennials in both concert and festival spending. And not for nothing: Ticket service fees pioneered by Ticketmaster eventually evolved from an outrageous anomaly to a begrudgingly accepted standard.
But perhaps among the biggest factors is one that applies to the entire music industry: People really, really love music. In response to the inevitable question of the impact of the U.S.’ new tariffs, Rapino said the company has yet to see any consumer pullback.
The common thinking is that music is “recession proof” because it isn’t the first thing most consumers will give up versus, say, going to the movies or visiting a theme park. Part of that reasoning is because of the low-cost barriers for music services such as Spotify, but even as an activity as expensive as live music, fans’ love for their favorite artists continues to outweigh the cost of seeing them perform.
Just like last year, 2025 may not end up as a new all-time high for live music, but it’s still likely to be a big year, at least for LNE. But as much as the company is the live music industry — a distinction the DOJ is investigating — a record-breaking year for LNE doesn’t necessarily mean a record-breaking year for everyone else, especially as indie venues continue to shut down and artists struggle to afford touring at all.
Time will tell if stadiums take back the lion’s share of revenue growth, if smaller venues will see bigger turnouts or, ideally, a bit of both.
Q1 for the sector is typically a sleepy quarter for live music, though it still offers a glimpse of where the rest of the year is going. But with the release of reports by Live Nation Entertainment and Pollstar, 2025’s trajectory is perhaps more hazy than it was before the quarter wrapped.
LNE’s Q1 report (which tracks January to mid-April) paints a rosy picture for the rest of ‘25 despite the actual Q1 results being underwhelming. The company attributed its drops in revenue ($3.4 billion, -11% YoY) and adjusted operating income ($341.1 million, -6% YoY) to a dip in non-concert activities such as sports as well as ongoing foreign currency fluctuations, although concert revenue was also down by 14% compared with 2024’s Q1, at $2.48 billion.
But instead of focusing on those losses, the company highlighted what’s ahead for 2025. Live Nation’s deferred revenue — or money from events happening later in the year — is around $5.4 billion, up 24% by this point last year, while Ticketmaster’s deferred revenue was also up a record 13%, at $270 million.
A representative for LNE confirmed that as of last week, 100 million tickets have been sold for Live Nation concerts this year — already beyond the 98 million sold in 2019 and on par to match or even exceed the 160 million of 2024.
Interestingly, that lift was driven by an “over 80%” increase in stadium ticket sales, likely a surprise to anyone tracking industrywide trends over the past couple of years — including LNE noting the ongoing “reduced stadium activity” in previous quarterly reports. (A rep for LNE clarified that the change in stadium activity is in part the natural “ebb and flow” of the industry.)
These results set the stage for another “historic year for live music” in LNE’s opinion. Pollstar, meanwhile, predicted a “mixed year ahead” based on its own Q1 results (mid-November to mid-February).
Looking at the top 100 tours worldwide, Pollstar found that average ticket price went down for the first time in years — by 20%, no less. By extension, total tickets sold and average tickets sold per show also increased by double digits (17.3% and 18.8%, respectively). Still, despite the ticket sale increase, Q1 gross (-6.4%) and average gross per show (-5%) both declined for the first time in the post-pandemic era.
But this development isn’t necessarily a negative one, as Pollstar noted in its analysis that the most dramatic YoY deficits are at the front of the top 100 tours list. The top five highest-grossing tours for Q1, for instance, saw a 39% decrease in gross and 10.3% decrease in ticket sales versus last year’s Q1.
Not only is the YoY loss in gross reduced by well over half by the top 50 acts, but the YoY rate for tickets sold increases to nearly 9%. In other words, gross and average price are down despite ticket sales being up, because the money is more evenly distributed among the top 100 tours compared with previous quarters.
In reality, Pollstar and LNE found similar Q1 trends — not as much money came in this quarter, while attendance is up — but they ultimately drew different conclusions. It’s LNE’s optimism for beyond Q1, especially on the stadium front, that seems to be the point of divergence.
There may be a few factors at play behind the stadium show push. For one, there’s a particularly stacked lineup of stadium tours by artists popular with younger audiences. There are the usual rock and nostalgia acts leading stadium tours (think Coldplay, Billy Joel, Oasis), of course, but a shift to younger pop and pop-adjacent acts predominantly mounting top-scale tours is well underway.
Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar/SZA’s respective tours are currently drawing umpteen thousands, and the former already broke a box office record with her kickoff at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium despite reports of unsold tickets.
Artists already playing or set to play stadium gigs this year include first-timers Olivia Rodrigo and Lana Del Rey, pop-country superstars Post Malone and Morgan Wallen and Latin heavyweights Bad Bunny and Shakira.
By extension, these big tours coming off an exceptional year for new music releases is likely no coincidence, either. Chart-topping hits including Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” and Lamar’s “Not Like Us” were especially culturally pervasive over the past year, and Luminate data shows how the top 200 songs have increasingly captured more of a given year’s total streams since 2022. Perhaps one side effect of so much new, hugely popular music is greater live demand for certain artists.
Another potential change is that stadium tickets, for now, are getting cheaper. LNE noted in its Q1 report that the average get-in price for all venue types is currently $40, while stadiums specifically are 8% below 2024 levels at $60. If this is true, it’s a welcome adjustment after years of skyrocketing ticket prices and fees.
It’s also a necessary shift as the music industry tests the monetary potential and limits of superfans via premium experiences and dedicated pricing tiers for the most devoted. Indeed, these lower get-in prices seem to be part of LNE’s “Robin Hood strategy,” as described by LNE CEO Michael Rapino in the Q1 earnings call, to make the base prices cheaper and adjust the value of the premium tiers accordingly.
On the fandom front, it’s also possible that audiences are adjusting to the “new normal” of high prices. As core live music fans shift from Millennials to Gen Z, Zoomers have displayed a willingness to spend big, travel far and even take on debt to attend a concert or festival. Luminate also found that as of Q1 2025, Gen Z is currently outpacing Millennials in both concert and festival spending. And not for nothing: Ticket service fees pioneered by Ticketmaster eventually evolved from an outrageous anomaly to a begrudgingly accepted standard.
But perhaps among the biggest factors is one that applies to the entire music industry: People really, really love music. In response to the inevitable question of the impact of the U.S.’ new tariffs, Rapino said the company has yet to see any consumer pullback.
The common thinking is that music is “recession proof” because it isn’t the first thing most consumers will give up versus, say, going to the movies or visiting a theme park. Part of that reasoning is because of the low-cost barriers for music services such as Spotify, but even as an activity as expensive as live music, fans’ love for their favorite artists continues to outweigh the cost of seeing them perform.
Just like last year, 2025 may not end up as a new all-time high for live music, but it’s still likely to be a big year, at least for LNE. But as much as the company is the live music industry — a distinction the DOJ is investigating — a record-breaking year for LNE doesn’t necessarily mean a record-breaking year for everyone else, especially as indie venues continue to shut down and artists struggle to afford touring at all.
Time will tell if stadiums take back the lion’s share of revenue growth, if smaller venues will see bigger turnouts or, ideally, a bit of both.