The Awards Season Gamble: Why Festival Strategy Can Make or Break Oscar Dreams
For Hollywood studios eyeing Oscar gold, deciding where to premiere a film is one of the season’s most crucial strategic choices. The right debut at the right festival can generate months of positive buzz; the wrong one can torpedo an awards campaign before it begins.
“It’s a calculated gamble every time,” says a studio executive who requested anonymity in discussing internal strategy. “You’re weighing the potential upside of a festival launch against the very real risk of an early critical rejection that follows you all season long.”
Premieres at festivals like Telluride, Venice or Toronto offer studios several key benefits. First, they provide crucial early momentum. Films that generate acclaim at top-tier events often carry that goodwill through months of campaigning, creating a sense of inevitability that can sway Academy voters.
Festivals also allow studios to test their films with critics, industry professionals and tastemakers whose endorsements shape early conversation. “When you get a standing ovation at Venice or win the People’s Choice Award at Toronto, Oscar voters know they have to consider your film,” says a veteran awards strategist. “You’re getting validation from the exact audience you need to convince during awards season.”
The Venice International Film Festival involves a particularly complex calculation. While winning the Golden Lion does not guarantee Oscar success — since 2009, only five winners of the top prize have gone on to earn best picture nominations — Venice offers international prestige and media attention at a critical juncture in the awards calendar. A strong reception there can vault a picture into front-runner status.
But festivals can also stop a movie dead in its tracks.
Early critical rejection can spawn a negative narrative that proves nearly impossible to reverse. Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux” exemplifies this risk. Despite an 11-minute standing ovation at the crime musical’s Venice premiere, persistent critical backlash overtook any initial goodwill. The $200 million Warner Bros. sequel opened domestically to just $40 million, and awards prospects for stars Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga vanished almost as soon as the reviews hit.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” another WB tentpole starring Leonardo DiCaprio, is bypassing Venice and isn’t expected to appear at Telluride. Given the film’s reported $175 million budget, the studio has chosen to avoid festivals entirely rather than risk the critical scrutiny that might dampen its commercial prospects. Their box-office-first approach is evident in what may be the most surreal partnership announcement in modern cinema history: a collaboration between PTA’s latest opus and the online game Fortnite. Could you ever imagine such a sentence?
Because of the cost and complications of flying talent around the world in a compressed time frame, very few films hit the full fall festival circuit — New York, Venice, Telluride and Toronto. Last year, Apple TV+ tried the tactic with Alfonso Cuarón’s miniseries “Disclaimer,” which earned just two Emmy nominations. This year, it seems no film is expected to mimic that tactic.
Other studios avoid festivals altogether. Universal Pictures rarely participates in the circuit; its upcoming “Wicked: For Good” is not expected to premiere at any major festival. This conservative approach eliminates the risk of early negative reviews but also forgoes the potential lift that a prestigious debut can provide.
Netflix, by contrast, continues to invest heavily in festival strategy. After “The Power of the Dog” earned 12 Oscar nominations following its festival run, the streamer plans to showcase Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” with George Clooney and Adam Sandler, at multiple festivals.
Focus Features, overflowing with awards prospects, will juggle Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” at Venice and Telluride, while debuting Daniel Day-Lewis’ acting comeback drama “Anemone” later in the year. Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” also from Focus, is being released on Christmas, but will likely bypass the festival circuit.
Ultimately, a festival premiere strategy reflects a studio’s confidence in its film and its willingness to take risks. In an industry where perception often becomes reality, the decision to debut at Venice instead of Toronto — or to skip festivals entirely — may determine not only a film’s awards trajectory but also its place in the Oscars echelon.
“It comes down to trusting the audience you choose to reveal it to will get it,” says another strategist. “And that is the biggest gamble of all.”
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
“It’s a calculated gamble every time,” says a studio executive who requested anonymity in discussing internal strategy. “You’re weighing the potential upside of a festival launch against the very real risk of an early critical rejection that follows you all season long.”
Premieres at festivals like Telluride, Venice or Toronto offer studios several key benefits. First, they provide crucial early momentum. Films that generate acclaim at top-tier events often carry that goodwill through months of campaigning, creating a sense of inevitability that can sway Academy voters.
Festivals also allow studios to test their films with critics, industry professionals and tastemakers whose endorsements shape early conversation. “When you get a standing ovation at Venice or win the People’s Choice Award at Toronto, Oscar voters know they have to consider your film,” says a veteran awards strategist. “You’re getting validation from the exact audience you need to convince during awards season.”
The Venice International Film Festival involves a particularly complex calculation. While winning the Golden Lion does not guarantee Oscar success — since 2009, only five winners of the top prize have gone on to earn best picture nominations — Venice offers international prestige and media attention at a critical juncture in the awards calendar. A strong reception there can vault a picture into front-runner status.
But festivals can also stop a movie dead in its tracks.
Early critical rejection can spawn a negative narrative that proves nearly impossible to reverse. Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux” exemplifies this risk. Despite an 11-minute standing ovation at the crime musical’s Venice premiere, persistent critical backlash overtook any initial goodwill. The $200 million Warner Bros. sequel opened domestically to just $40 million, and awards prospects for stars Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga vanished almost as soon as the reviews hit.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” another WB tentpole starring Leonardo DiCaprio, is bypassing Venice and isn’t expected to appear at Telluride. Given the film’s reported $175 million budget, the studio has chosen to avoid festivals entirely rather than risk the critical scrutiny that might dampen its commercial prospects. Their box-office-first approach is evident in what may be the most surreal partnership announcement in modern cinema history: a collaboration between PTA’s latest opus and the online game Fortnite. Could you ever imagine such a sentence?
Because of the cost and complications of flying talent around the world in a compressed time frame, very few films hit the full fall festival circuit — New York, Venice, Telluride and Toronto. Last year, Apple TV+ tried the tactic with Alfonso Cuarón’s miniseries “Disclaimer,” which earned just two Emmy nominations. This year, it seems no film is expected to mimic that tactic.
Other studios avoid festivals altogether. Universal Pictures rarely participates in the circuit; its upcoming “Wicked: For Good” is not expected to premiere at any major festival. This conservative approach eliminates the risk of early negative reviews but also forgoes the potential lift that a prestigious debut can provide.
Netflix, by contrast, continues to invest heavily in festival strategy. After “The Power of the Dog” earned 12 Oscar nominations following its festival run, the streamer plans to showcase Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” with George Clooney and Adam Sandler, at multiple festivals.
Focus Features, overflowing with awards prospects, will juggle Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” at Venice and Telluride, while debuting Daniel Day-Lewis’ acting comeback drama “Anemone” later in the year. Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” also from Focus, is being released on Christmas, but will likely bypass the festival circuit.
Ultimately, a festival premiere strategy reflects a studio’s confidence in its film and its willingness to take risks. In an industry where perception often becomes reality, the decision to debut at Venice instead of Toronto — or to skip festivals entirely — may determine not only a film’s awards trajectory but also its place in the Oscars echelon.
“It comes down to trusting the audience you choose to reveal it to will get it,” says another strategist. “And that is the biggest gamble of all.”
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars