Oscars Screenplay Race Break Down: From Paul Thomas Anderson’s Dominance to Foreign-Language Longshots
Most of the Oscar prognostication action happens around the best picture, acting and directing races, leaving the poor writing nominees metaphorically stuck alone in a room, staring at a blank screen. Not wanting to compound their feelings of loneliness, neglect and — let’s face it, they’re writers — bitterness, Variety is flashing the spotlight in their direction with this list of five things to look for in the original and adapted screenplay categories.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for the win
This might fall into a “Jeopardy!” category titled “Stating the Obvious.” Anybody with a passing knowledge of how the Oscars work understands that the winner is often really getting the award because “it’s their time.”
Anderson has five previous screenplay nominations — three for original (“Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “Licorice Pizza”) and two for adapted (“There Will Be Blood,” “Inherent Vice”) —and 14 nods overall, with no wins to date. He’s up for three Oscars this year. Do the math. If he doesn’t win for best picture or directing, he’s likely winning for adapted screenplay.
2. Unstoppable “Sinners”
With a record 16 nominations, “Sinners” clearly has momentum behind it, so don’t be surprised to see its writer/director Ryan Coogler walking up the aisle at the Dolby Theatre when they read the name of the winner for original screenplay.
3. Dark horses
Supporting actor and actress are typically seen as the dark horse categories, often giving the win to a charming young newcomer (e.g., Anna Paquin for “The Piano”) or an aged vet making a comeback (Gloria Stuart for “Titanic,” Christopher Plummer for “Beginners,” etc.). But the screenplay categories have also seen their share of equine noir cross the finish line in first place, including Billy Bob Thornton (“Sling Blade”), who beat out “The English Patient” and “Trainspotting” for adapted screenplay in 1997, and Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”), who bested Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”) and Pixar’s “Up” in the original screenplay category in 2010.
This year, the darkest horse in the writing categories is writer/director Jafar Panahi’s Persian-language “It Was Just an Accident,” which is nominated for original screenplay, as well as international film. But, if history is any indicator, its chances are slim.
4. Lost in translation
Only six foreign-language films have won in the writing categories, all original screenplays, and only two since 1967: “Talk to Her” by Pedro Almodover in 2003 and “Parasite” by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won in 2020. So you can probably safely count out “It Was Just an Accident” and, to a lesser degree, its fellow original screenplay nominee, “Sentimental Value,” which is primarily in Norwegian and Swedish. The latter’s chances are amplified because portions of the movie are in English and it’s a more high-profile contender, with a total of nine nominations, including nods in supporting categories for a pair of actors well-known to Academy voters, Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning.
5. Hyphenates triumphant
When a presidential nominee picks their running mate, they look for a candidate who can strengthen their support in various demographics and territories. With the Oscars, there are no running mates, but it helps if you appeal to more than one voting bloc. That’s why, in the screenplay categories, the advantage goes to the writer who is also a director.
Examples range from three-time winners Billy Wilder (“The Lost Weekend,” “Sunset Boulevard,” “The Apartment”) and Woody Allen (“Annie Hall,” “Hannah and Her Sisters,” “Midnight in Paris”) to Sean Baker, who last year took home the Oscar for original screenplay (as well as best picture) for “Anora,” which he also directed.
This year, only two of the 10 nominated films were not written or co-written by the director — “Blue Moon” (Robert Kaplow) and “Bugonia” (Will Tracy) — neither of which has much momentum, almost assuring that a director will get a statuette in both categories.
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for the win
This might fall into a “Jeopardy!” category titled “Stating the Obvious.” Anybody with a passing knowledge of how the Oscars work understands that the winner is often really getting the award because “it’s their time.”
Anderson has five previous screenplay nominations — three for original (“Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “Licorice Pizza”) and two for adapted (“There Will Be Blood,” “Inherent Vice”) —and 14 nods overall, with no wins to date. He’s up for three Oscars this year. Do the math. If he doesn’t win for best picture or directing, he’s likely winning for adapted screenplay.
2. Unstoppable “Sinners”
With a record 16 nominations, “Sinners” clearly has momentum behind it, so don’t be surprised to see its writer/director Ryan Coogler walking up the aisle at the Dolby Theatre when they read the name of the winner for original screenplay.
3. Dark horses
Supporting actor and actress are typically seen as the dark horse categories, often giving the win to a charming young newcomer (e.g., Anna Paquin for “The Piano”) or an aged vet making a comeback (Gloria Stuart for “Titanic,” Christopher Plummer for “Beginners,” etc.). But the screenplay categories have also seen their share of equine noir cross the finish line in first place, including Billy Bob Thornton (“Sling Blade”), who beat out “The English Patient” and “Trainspotting” for adapted screenplay in 1997, and Mark Boal (“The Hurt Locker”), who bested Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”) and Pixar’s “Up” in the original screenplay category in 2010.
This year, the darkest horse in the writing categories is writer/director Jafar Panahi’s Persian-language “It Was Just an Accident,” which is nominated for original screenplay, as well as international film. But, if history is any indicator, its chances are slim.
4. Lost in translation
Only six foreign-language films have won in the writing categories, all original screenplays, and only two since 1967: “Talk to Her” by Pedro Almodover in 2003 and “Parasite” by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won in 2020. So you can probably safely count out “It Was Just an Accident” and, to a lesser degree, its fellow original screenplay nominee, “Sentimental Value,” which is primarily in Norwegian and Swedish. The latter’s chances are amplified because portions of the movie are in English and it’s a more high-profile contender, with a total of nine nominations, including nods in supporting categories for a pair of actors well-known to Academy voters, Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning.
5. Hyphenates triumphant
When a presidential nominee picks their running mate, they look for a candidate who can strengthen their support in various demographics and territories. With the Oscars, there are no running mates, but it helps if you appeal to more than one voting bloc. That’s why, in the screenplay categories, the advantage goes to the writer who is also a director.
Examples range from three-time winners Billy Wilder (“The Lost Weekend,” “Sunset Boulevard,” “The Apartment”) and Woody Allen (“Annie Hall,” “Hannah and Her Sisters,” “Midnight in Paris”) to Sean Baker, who last year took home the Oscar for original screenplay (as well as best picture) for “Anora,” which he also directed.
This year, only two of the 10 nominated films were not written or co-written by the director — “Blue Moon” (Robert Kaplow) and “Bugonia” (Will Tracy) — neither of which has much momentum, almost assuring that a director will get a statuette in both categories.