How the UFC Can Punch Above Its Weight in Next TV Rights Deal
In 2018, the UFC and ESPN signed a five-year $1.5 billion media rights deal whose value far exceeded analysts’ expectations, nearly tripling the average annual value of UFC’s prior deal with Fox. As the UFC-ESPN deal nears its expiration date at the end of 2025, the question is, How much of an increase can the mixed martial arts league command this time around?
Bloomberg reported in January that the UFC is seeking as much as $1 billion per year, which would more than triple the value of its current deal, as well as the possibility of a streaming service coming in either to replace ESPN or split the rights package.
But while a healthy increase for UFC seems like a foregone conclusion, some additional perspective on where the market for sports rights stands right now — recently explored in a VIP+ special report — might cast some doubt on reaching the $1 billion mark.
Over the course of the UFC’s current deal, media rights for live sporting events have seen tremendous increases in value as streaming platforms have entered the fold and bid aggressively for rights. The NFL negotiated over $100 billion in media rights fees from a total of seven platforms, while the NBA more than doubled the average annual value of its rights, which now bring in around $7 billion per year.
Now in 2025, most leagues are locked into media rights deals for the next several years, making the UFC the last major piece of acquirable live sports content for the foreseeable future.
When trying to weigh all of these factors and predict the value of the UFC’s next rights deal, it is difficult to ignore WWE’s recent deal and what it might mean for the UFC. First, professional wrestling and mixed martial arts are in the greater combat sports ecosystem and operate under similar pay-per-view models.
Moreover, both WWE and UFC are owned by TKO Group, whose leadership has played a pivotal role in media rights negotiations for both organizations. WWE also followed the broader sports industry’s movement toward streaming when they sold the rights to its flagship “Monday Night Raw” to Netflix in a 10-year, $5 billion deal.
Perhaps most important, the $265 million per year “Monday Night Raw” brought in through its previous deal with NBC’s USA Network represented one of the closest valuations to the UFC’s $300 million yearly deal with ESPN.
The “Monday Night Raw” deal with Netflix gave the WWE an 89% increase in rights fees for that program. Applying that same 89% growth rate to the UFC’s previous $300 million agreement brings the UFC to around $566 million per year.
If TKO Group were to lump in the rights to its newly announced boxing promotion, in which UFC president Dana White is set to be heavily involved, then the $1 billion-per-year price tag seems far more likely. Otherwise the UFC should fall somewhere between the $780 million total rights fees per year WWE (including both “Smackdown” and “Raw”) brought in and Bloomberg’s reported $1 billion.
However, given the UFC’s growth since the pandemic, it could be looking to surpass WWE. Given that it’s the first professional sport to return to action, White estimates the UFC fan base grew 68% during that period.
In terms of distribution, the UFC will likely keep most of its content with ESPN and split off other pieces to a streaming platform. The exclusive access ESPN+ has to the UFC’s pay-per-view and Fight Night events are a key value prop for several subscribers, and the UFC’s growth has helped drive a 75% year-over-year increase in ESPN+ subscribers.
From the UFC’s perspective, Disney’s ability to broadcast fights via ESPN, ESPN+ and ABC offers a unique blend of channels to showcase its athletes and gain more fans. But Netflix makes the most sense to emerge as a new home for some of the UFC’s content considering the existing relationship with TKO Group and the fact that the streamer’s investments in live sports have largely been focused on combat sports.
With Netflix’s scale and ability to build fan bases, the UFC should take a similar approach to F1 and its “Drive to Survive” series, which over 50% of those surveyed by Morning Consult said had an impact on them becoming an F1 fan.
The UFC already produces a reality series, “The Ultimate Fighter,” in which 16 prospects are split into two teams coached by UFC stars to compete for a chance at a UFC contract, all while living under the same roof. Airing the show would give Netflix access to some UFC fights at a much smaller investment given the series is a piece of secondary content, while the UFC would have an opportunity to introduce itself to Netflix’s 300 million-plus subscribers.
Ultimately, weighing both the higher valuations live sports rights have been garnering and the strong growth of the UFC since the pandemic, UFC is poised for a drastic increase in rights fees. Regardless of whether it hits the $1 billion-per-year mark, the company should see a large influx of cash, and the investments Dana White and team choose to make with it will have huge potential to fuel further growth.
This piece is courtesy of the fellows program at UCLA Anderson School of Management’s Center for Media, Entertainment & Sports. The students also contributed to VIP+’s April special report digging into sports rights, noted below …
Bloomberg reported in January that the UFC is seeking as much as $1 billion per year, which would more than triple the value of its current deal, as well as the possibility of a streaming service coming in either to replace ESPN or split the rights package.
But while a healthy increase for UFC seems like a foregone conclusion, some additional perspective on where the market for sports rights stands right now — recently explored in a VIP+ special report — might cast some doubt on reaching the $1 billion mark.
Over the course of the UFC’s current deal, media rights for live sporting events have seen tremendous increases in value as streaming platforms have entered the fold and bid aggressively for rights. The NFL negotiated over $100 billion in media rights fees from a total of seven platforms, while the NBA more than doubled the average annual value of its rights, which now bring in around $7 billion per year.
Now in 2025, most leagues are locked into media rights deals for the next several years, making the UFC the last major piece of acquirable live sports content for the foreseeable future.
When trying to weigh all of these factors and predict the value of the UFC’s next rights deal, it is difficult to ignore WWE’s recent deal and what it might mean for the UFC. First, professional wrestling and mixed martial arts are in the greater combat sports ecosystem and operate under similar pay-per-view models.
Moreover, both WWE and UFC are owned by TKO Group, whose leadership has played a pivotal role in media rights negotiations for both organizations. WWE also followed the broader sports industry’s movement toward streaming when they sold the rights to its flagship “Monday Night Raw” to Netflix in a 10-year, $5 billion deal.
Perhaps most important, the $265 million per year “Monday Night Raw” brought in through its previous deal with NBC’s USA Network represented one of the closest valuations to the UFC’s $300 million yearly deal with ESPN.
The “Monday Night Raw” deal with Netflix gave the WWE an 89% increase in rights fees for that program. Applying that same 89% growth rate to the UFC’s previous $300 million agreement brings the UFC to around $566 million per year.
If TKO Group were to lump in the rights to its newly announced boxing promotion, in which UFC president Dana White is set to be heavily involved, then the $1 billion-per-year price tag seems far more likely. Otherwise the UFC should fall somewhere between the $780 million total rights fees per year WWE (including both “Smackdown” and “Raw”) brought in and Bloomberg’s reported $1 billion.
However, given the UFC’s growth since the pandemic, it could be looking to surpass WWE. Given that it’s the first professional sport to return to action, White estimates the UFC fan base grew 68% during that period.
In terms of distribution, the UFC will likely keep most of its content with ESPN and split off other pieces to a streaming platform. The exclusive access ESPN+ has to the UFC’s pay-per-view and Fight Night events are a key value prop for several subscribers, and the UFC’s growth has helped drive a 75% year-over-year increase in ESPN+ subscribers.
From the UFC’s perspective, Disney’s ability to broadcast fights via ESPN, ESPN+ and ABC offers a unique blend of channels to showcase its athletes and gain more fans. But Netflix makes the most sense to emerge as a new home for some of the UFC’s content considering the existing relationship with TKO Group and the fact that the streamer’s investments in live sports have largely been focused on combat sports.
With Netflix’s scale and ability to build fan bases, the UFC should take a similar approach to F1 and its “Drive to Survive” series, which over 50% of those surveyed by Morning Consult said had an impact on them becoming an F1 fan.
The UFC already produces a reality series, “The Ultimate Fighter,” in which 16 prospects are split into two teams coached by UFC stars to compete for a chance at a UFC contract, all while living under the same roof. Airing the show would give Netflix access to some UFC fights at a much smaller investment given the series is a piece of secondary content, while the UFC would have an opportunity to introduce itself to Netflix’s 300 million-plus subscribers.
Ultimately, weighing both the higher valuations live sports rights have been garnering and the strong growth of the UFC since the pandemic, UFC is poised for a drastic increase in rights fees. Regardless of whether it hits the $1 billion-per-year mark, the company should see a large influx of cash, and the investments Dana White and team choose to make with it will have huge potential to fuel further growth.
This piece is courtesy of the fellows program at UCLA Anderson School of Management’s Center for Media, Entertainment & Sports. The students also contributed to VIP+’s April special report digging into sports rights, noted below …